Economic analysis of the initial level, the state of the object in the past and present is the most important element of the logic of planning and forecasting. It allows you to reveal the essence of the object (process, phenomenon), to determine the patterns of its changes in the past, in the planned and forecasted periods, to comprehensively assess the possibilities of the development of the object to achieve the set goals. The analysis should correspond to the goals, objectives, conditions and requirements of planning and forecasting and act as a system of their analytical support, as a tool for preparing management decisions.
If we consider forecasting as a scientific basis for making a managerial decision (see Chapter 2), then the full cycle of the forecasting process goes through three stages: retrospection, diagnosis and prognosis (forecasting). Retrospection is the study of the history of the development of the forecasting object for the purpose of its systematized description. At this stage, information, sources necessary for forecasting, optimization of its composition and measurement methods and methods are collected, stored and processed. representations, the structure and composition of the forecasting object are refined and finally formed.
At the diagnosis stage, a systematized description of the object is investigated in order to identify trends in its development, the choice of models and forecasting methods. The most important component of this stage is analysis, which predetermines the choice of a forecast model and a forecasting method.
At the third stage – inspection – a forecast of the object is developed, an assessment of its reliability, accuracy and validity is carried out.
Due to the inertia of socio-economic processes in terms of role and significance, the first two stages are not inferior to the third. They allow you to assess the ways and directions of development of the object, to identify its bottlenecks in the analyzed period, to determine the prevailing and stable trends (patterns) of development. In fact, they serve as a methodological basis for the formation of hypotheses for the future development of the object. But at the same time, inertia does not mean that in the future the previously formed trends and characteristics of the object will be rigidly repeated. It is more manifested in the relationships that determine the mechanism of formation of the object.
The essence of economic analysis lies in the fact that the economic process or phenomenon is divided into component parts, the relationship and influence of these parts on each other and on the course of development of the whole process are established.
When developing a forecast, the main goals of object analysis are highlighted:
assessment of the state and results of the development of the object; obtaining initial information for forecasting.
Characteristic features of the analysis: the use of a system of indicators that comprehensively characterize the object, the study of the reasons for the change in these indicators, the identification and measurement of the relationships between them. Cause-and-effect relationships in analysis are studied by the method of logical induction and deduction. In the first case, the study of indicators is carried out from the particular to the general, in the second – from the general to the particular.
The conceptual scheme of economic analysis includes the following elements:
setting goals and objectives of the analysis; drawing up an analytical work plan; preparation of sources of information for analysis (determination of the list of necessary information, verification of its reliability); study and analytical processing of economic information (establishment of causal relationships and dependencies, measurement and assessment of the influence of factors); generalization and design of the results of the analysis.
When analyzing the object of forecasting, the principle of consistency must be observed, which allows us to consider the object as a whole and highlight its components. Thus, the national economy as an object of forecasting can be considered as a whole and highlight the components: spheres, regions, industries, etc.
It is possible to analyze the development of the national economy through a comprehensive study of the rates of development, national economic proportions, the structure of social production, and intersectoral proportions. An assessment of the use of labor, natural resource potential, and the development of NTP can be given. Particular importance should be attached to identifying the trend of change in the most important indicators of production efficiency that characterize the quality of economic growth (material intensity, energy intensity, capital return, labor productivity).
These examples show that the following approaches can be used in the analysis process: object, functional, object-functional.
Object involves the selection of certain subsystems by element-by-element division of objects into smaller ones. Each of them can be considered as an independent object of forecasting the corresponding level of the hierarchy. This approach is acceptable for objects of quantitatively complex structure with the relative simplicity of its components (primary objects).
With the functional approach, the functional feature is taken as the basis for the structural division of the object. This approach is recommended when the number of primary objects that make up the forecasting object is small, but they are very complex in their characteristics and relationships.
Sometimes an object-functional approach is used; or mixed, containing elements of the first two approaches.
In the process of economic analysis, various methods and techniques are used: comparisons, groupings, index method, direct counting method and others. The most important and common method of analysis is comparison. As a rule, the cognition of any phenomenon begins from it. There are several forms of comparison: comparison with the plan, comparison with the past, comparison with the best, comparison with the average data. For example, when assessing the implementation of the state plan, a comparison of actual indicators with planned ones is used. The identified deviations, in turn, are the object of further analysis, while their causes are established, the quality of planning is evaluated.
Any economic research needs a grouping. It allows you to study economic phenomena and processes in their interrelation and interdependence, to identify the influence of the most significant factors, to discover patterns and trends inherent in these phenomena and processes. The importance of the grouping method in analytical work is increasing in connection with the improvement of the management of the national economy, the creation of industrial associations, agro-industrial complexes, territorial-production departments, management links of the subsectoral and sectoral levels. This method involves the use of various groupings: typological, structural analytical.
The index method is based on relative indicators expressing the ratio of the level of the phenomenon to its level in the past or to the level of a similar phenomenon, taken as the basic one. Each index is calculated by comparing the measured (reportable) value with the base value. The index method can reveal the influence of various factors on the indicator under study (phenomenon, process).
In the process of analysis, other techniques and methods are also used – direct counting, survey, observations, etc. Of these, economic and mathematical methods are important in improving economic analysis, increasing its efficiency. They significantly reduce the time of analysis, provide a more complete coverage of the influence of factors on the results of economic development, replace approximate and simplified calculations with accurate calculations, allow solving new multidimensional analysis problems that are practically impossible to perform by traditional methods, and increase the scientific level of research as a whole.
Analysis of the object (process, phenomenon) is present at all stages of planning, forecasting and regulation of the economy. Analysis is inextricably linked with synthesis, they form a single methodological whole. Analysis is the beginning of the study of the object, followed by synthesis. If in the process of analysis an object is divided into its constituent elements, then synthesis unites them into a single whole. In this case, synthesis cannot be considered as a simple summation of elements. Synthesis allows you to imagine the object in a new way – as the interaction of elements that form a single whole.
Analysis and synthesis are widely used in planning and forecasting, in solving problems of socio-economic development of the state.