In the last fifty years, the world’s population has been growing at an ever-increasing rate. So, if in 1750 the world’s population was about 0.5 billion people, then in 100 years it doubled, in another 100 years it increased by 2.5 times, and by 2050, if the emerging trends continue, it will grow more than 4 times. 4.1.
Rice. 4.1. Population dynamics in the world, in developed countries and developing countries 
The main population growth occurs in developing countries. If before 1950 about half of humanity lived in these countries, now it is 80%, and according to forecasts by 2050 almost 90% are expected. However, by this time many of the developing countries will have moved to the category of developed, but, nevertheless, the ethnic composition of the world’s population will change greatly.
According to some projections, the world’s population will cease after reaching the level of 10-12 billion people by about 2100 due to a decrease in the proportion of children and an increase in the proportion of older people in all countries. This will lead to a change in the basic attitudes of life (laws, morals, etc.), i.e. to a qualitative change in the population.
Population dynamics in Belarus
comparison with global trends
The world’s population is growing, as noted above, at the expense of developing countries. The main reason for this growth is the decline in the mortality rate of the population of countries, especially after the Second World War. As a result, population growth in these countries amounted to about 2% per year in 1925-2001, which is several times higher than in the OECD, CEE and CIS countries, in high-income countries, Table 2. 4.1.
Table 4.1 Resource requirements by component
Population dynamics in the world and by main
Regions in 1975-2001, [1, p.253]
Total population, billion people.
Average annual population growth rate, %
East Asia and the Pacific
CEE and CIS countries
High-income countries (GNI per capita above USD 9206 in 2001)
Middle-income countries (GNI per capita 746-9205 USD in 2001)
Low-income countries (GNI per capita less than USD 745 in 2001)
Belarus (GNI per capita about 1500 USD without PPP in 2001), million people.
The dynamics of the population of Belarus is very different from the dynamics of the world’s population. So, if in 1975-
In 2001, the average annual population growth rate in the world was 1.6%, while in Belarus it was only 0.2%. By 2015, global population growth is projected to slow to 1.1% per year. In Belarus, depopulation is expected at a rate of 0.4% on average per year.
In relation to the population dynamics of developing countries, the corresponding dynamics in Belarus are an even greater contrast. Population dynamics in OECD countries are closer to the population dynamics of Belarus, but population growth is also expected in them.
The demographic situation of Belarus is most similar to the situation in the CEE and CIS countries as a whole. If from 1975 to 2001 they experienced population growth of 0.5% per year on average (this figure is 1.6% worldwide), then according to forecasts until 2015 the population will decline by an average of 0.2% annually. In the Republic of Belarus, the situation is even more complicated, since already at present its population is decreasing by about 40 thousand people a year, and according to the forecast until 2015, the decline in numbers will be 0.4% on average per year. 4.2.
Rice. 4.2. Retrospective and projected average annual population growth rates in countries depending on the level of per capita income, [3, p.20]
It turns out that Belarus, like the entire group of CEE and CIS countries, is out of the general rule (the lower the per capita income, the higher the birth rate): according to the per capita GNI in these countries, there should be a population growth of up to 1% per year; but according to forecasts, as noted above, depopulation is expected, which is not expected even in developed countries.