Calculation based on expected per capita GDP growth.

According to statistics, in 2001 the per capita volume of GDP in Belarus amounted to 7620 USD. UNITED STATES. If we take into account that in 2002 the total volume of GDP increased by 5% and in 2003 – by 6.8%, it is possible to assume in dollar terms the per capita level of GDP in 2003 can be considered equal to 8545 (7620 – 1.05 – 1.068). With a further per capita growth rate of 9%, the OECD average in 2001 will be achieved through

12 years, i.e. by 2015:

⇒ (years).

If we assume that the average per capita GDP in OECD countries will increase by 2% per year, then the Republic of Belarus will need 15 years to reach the level of Western countries (Fig. 2.1):

(years).

Calculation based on the Cobb-Douglas function.

For 2001, the Cobb-Douglas function for Belarus is as follows:

17173 (billion rubles) = 1,02334?1161290,81?4,40,19,

where 17173 is the actual volume of GDP (billion rubles);

116129 – the actual volume of fixed assets (billion rubles);

1.02334 is a multiplier that equalizes the left and right parts;

4.4 – number of people employed in the national economy (million people);

0.81 and 0.19 are indicators of the degree showing the elasticity of GDP by the corresponding factor.

In 14 years, we will assume that the GDP elasticity indicator for capital will increase to 0.85. The number of employees is expected to be 4.3 million people By this time, the total GDP in 2001 prices should be the average for OECD countries:

(billion rubles).

The required amount of capital will be found from the main type of function:

(billion rubles) =

Under accepted assumptions, capital gains over 14 years should exceed $131 billion, or more than $9 billion. annually. Such a number can hardly be mobilized at the expense of internal resources. The need for capital can be reduced due to its more efficient use, i.e. due to an increase in the coefficient of elasticity of GDP for this factor.

If we assume that the republic should invest about $ 60 billion in the economy during this period, then the efficiency of capital should increase to 0.88. Then its volume will be:

(billion rubles) = 157.5 (billion dollars)

This is a more realistic option (Table 2.5).

Table 2.5 Resource requirements by component

Comparative characteristics of the forecast options for the need of the Republic of Belarus in investment to achieve per capita GDP at the level of OECD countries by 2015

Baseline 2001 | Forecast | ||

Option I | Option II | ||

GDP, USD/ | 7620 | 23363 | 23363 |

The volume of fixed capital in the economy, billions of dollars. | 98,4 | 229,6 | 157,5 |

Growth of fixed capital, billions of dollars. | – | 131,2 | 59,1 |

Coefficient of GDP elasticity by capital | 0,8 | 0,85 | 0,88 |

Number of employees, million people. | 4,4 | 4,3 | 4,3 |