Planning and forecasting of economic development and economic growth

The basis of state regulation of economic development and economic growth rates in the Republic of Belarus are the forms and methods of their advanced display: forecasts, long-term concepts, master schemes, development projects, etc. At the same time, state regulation of economic development and economic growth is carried out within the framework of the general concept of strategic development of the republic.

The concept of strategic development of the Republic of Belarus at the present stage was formed and presented in the National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus. This document reflected the scientifically based directions of sustainable development of the republic, based on the principles of sustainable development adopted by the UN in the “Agenda for the XXI Century”, and its own national interests, conditions and features of development.

The National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus was developed in order to ensure the country’s effective participation in solving issues of sustainable socio-economic development within the framework of the world economy and to create the necessary prerequisites for sustainable development in the republic, capable of ensuring a balanced solution of socio-economic problems, problems of preserving a favorable environment and natural resource potential in order to meet the needs of the current and future generations of people. The National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus has been included in the system of state forecast and planning documents of socio-economic development for the long term and is developed every five years for a 15-year period.

Economic growth is projected on the basis of data on the analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the factors affecting the growth of production. Various methods are used to predict economic growth. It is possible to use factor models, the essence of which is to establish quantitative relationships between the volume and dynamics of production, the volume and dynamics of production resources. The dependence of output on one or more factors of production is established. When using one factor, for example, labor resources, a single-factor model is used, with two or more – multifactor models are used.

In addition, when forecasting economic growth, extrapolation or transfer to the future of trends and patterns of economic growth that have developed in the past and present is used. However, the use of extrapolation is legitimate only if the dynamic process is stable over time; preservation of the general conditions of reproduction for a certain period of time in the future, the absence of factors that can cause a turning point or a jump in economic development. But even in these cases, there are limitations for the extrapolation horizon: for macroeconomic indicators, it should not exceed
3-5 years.

Index methods of calculation are also used to determine the growth rate and volume of social product and national income.

The calculation of economic growth rates, taking into account the influence of factors of production, can be carried out:

on the basis of changes in the number of people employed in material production and their productivity; on the basis of the dynamics of production assets and changes in the efficiency of their use.

With the first method of calculation, the change in the number of employees in the sphere of material production can be determined on the basis of demographic statistics, reporting balances of labor resources. The increase in labor productivity can be calculated on the basis of the planned tasks for the growth of capital-labor-labor, energy-to-weight ratio and the existing ratio of these indicators with labor productivity. Hence, the growth rate of the social product will be equal to:

Jop = Jpr * Jh ,

where Jop is the growth index of the social product; JPR – labor productivity growth index; Jh is an index of growth in the number of employees in material production.

With the second method of calculation, it is necessary to determine the growth of production assets in the forecast period and the expected return on capital. The calculation formula is as follows:

Jop = Jf * Jfo,

where Jop is the growth index of the social product; Jf – index of increase in fixed production assets; Jfo – index of changes in return on capital.

Methods for calculating the growth rate of production based on the dependence of the growth of the social product on the dynamics of the volume of living labor and its productivity or on the dynamics of the volume and efficiency of the use of productive assets cannot be isolated from each other. The process of social production is based on the simultaneous participation of labor power and productive assets, which are in certain quantitative ratios. Therefore, it is more correct to use multifactorial models when determining the growth rate of a social product, which allow to take into account the joint influence of various factors of production.

In regulating the scale and pace of economic growth, an important role is assigned to the program-target method. As the experience of many countries shows, programs are the most important tool for solving strategic, large-scale, as well as tactical key problems of economic, social and human development. They also make it possible to solve the key problems of stabilizing the development of the economy, creating the prerequisites for sustainable growth and serve to strengthen the target orientation in regulating the socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus. The advantages of the program-target method in solving the problems of economic growth, its scale and pace, stabilization of the economic development of the republic are based on a systematic approach that allows moving from solving individual problems and issues to the formation of a unified system of strategic and current goals of the state, regions, industries and mechanisms for their implementation.

The structure of the economy is manifested in a system of proportions. The national economic proportion is a specific, objectively determined by the level of development of society and the economy, the proportion between individual industries, industries, territories and spheres, in which these elements correspond to each other. At each stage of economic development, this correspondence is relatively stable. In the event of a discrepancy between the elements of the structure of the economy, disproportions arise. The system of proportions established by the state should be optimal in relation to a specific stage of economic development, correspond to the economic and political goals and objectives put forward by the state.

The directions of changing and improving the structure of the national economy depend on the structural policy of the state, manifested in the current conditions of development of the Republic of Belarus through the structural restructuring of the economy. For our republic in the next 10-15 years, the structural restructuring of the economy will be a key factor in the resumption of economic growth.

The development of structural forecasts involves the use of various methods: modeling, extrapolation, expert assessments, verification. One of the widely used modeling methods in forecasting the structure of social production is the development of an intersectoral balance of production and distribution of products. The structural forecast can begin with preliminary calculations of the intersectoral balance, on the basis of which the volume of production of various industries corresponding to the volume and structure of the final product is determined. Next comes a cycle of integration calculations, taking into account the action of several groups of dependencies, for example, the interchangeability of resources. One of the stages of structural forecasting based on the use of the cross-sectoral balance is the comparison of the initial structure of the final product with the real possibilities of these resources and the search for their convergence.

Short-term and medium-term structural forecasts are carried out using economic and mathematical, extrapolation and verification methods. For long-term structural forecasts, expert methods are more effective, allowing to foresee the upcoming ways of development of the structure of social production on the basis of expert opinions.

The main forecast directions of structural adjustment in the Republic of Belarus are reflected in the National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus, the Concept of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus until 2015, the Program of Structural Restructuring of the National Economy of the Republic, the Program of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for 2001-2005, annual forecasts. In long-term documents, the following are highlighted as the main directions for improving the structure of production of the republic:

preservation of a set of vital industries and industries that meet the minimum needs of the population and the national economy; orientation of the economy to the maximum possible use of its own production and technical potential and local resources; accelerated development of priority competitive export-oriented and import-substituting industries; development of economically justified integration ties with Russia, other CIS countries and far abroad, implementation of a coordinated structural policy; creation of a motivational mechanism for measures to structurally restructure the economy on the basis of a flexible combination of market methods and instruments of state regulation.