The basis of all varieties of expert forecasting methods is the use of expert knowledge about the object of forecasting and their ability to correctly predict its future state. Translated from Latin, an expert is a knowledgeable, knowledgeable one.
It is most expedient to use intuitive forecasting methods in the following cases:
lack of a sufficient amount of reliable information about the forecasting object – i.e. there is no information about similar forecasting objects or about the state of the forecasting object itself in the past;
great uncertainty of the state of the environment in which the functioning of the forecasting object will take place in the forecast period (external environment);
a large time horizon of forecasting, i.e. forecasting for a long period, in this case we actually have a combination of the two previous cases – there is no reliable information about the forecasting object itself and about its external environment.
To carry out forecasting using expert methods, in the most general case, it is necessary to perform a number of sequential actions, the general scheme of which is presented in Fig. 3.
Rice. 3. Scheme of work on the development of the forecast by expert methods.