An important form of regional policy is forecasting and planning. The main goal of regional forecasting and planning is to substantiate the directions and prospects for the development of the region for the development of economic and social policy and the adoption of appropriate management decisions.
Forecasting regional development is a foresight of the socio-economic situation in the region for the future, taking into account existing indicators, the dynamics of their changes and possible “disturbing” impacts. Unlike forecasting, planning regional development involves not just passive foresight of the development of the situation in the region, but also an active impact on it through the adoption and implementation of appropriate management decisions in order to achieve the desired (planned) state. Thus, planning the development of regions is a modeling of the future socio-economic state of the regions, taking into account both external factors independent of the subjects of management, and external factors independent of the subjects of management. Thus, planning the development of regions is a modeling of the future socio-economic state of the regions, taking into account both external factors independent of the subjects of management, and external factors independent of the subjects of management. management decisions made by them.
In the methodology of forecasting and planning the development of the regions, the following are used:
(a) A programme-targeted method that allows for the formulation and implementation of problematic and integrated targeted regional programmes. Problematic regional programs are based on key issues that determine the level and trends in the future of development of a particular aspect of the regional economic complex (for example, the program to support small business in Minsk). Comprehensive regional programs are those programs that are aimed at the balanced development of the region in terms of a number of indicators in order to fully meet the basic material and cultural needs of the population of the region (for example, the program of integrated socio-economic development of the Vitebsk region for 2001);
b) balance planning method based on the system of territorial balances. Through the balance method, the linking of resources and needs, the measurement of costs and results of production, the balance between the availability and necessity of material, energy, financial and labor resources, taking into account interregional ties, are ensured. At the same time, the most promising direction is the application of the natural-value scheme of the intersectoral balance (MOB), which takes into account the presence of regional intersectoral ties, mutual cooperation of related industries, the share of industries and specific products in mutual product exchange;
c) a normative method based on the active application of differentiated norms and standards as goal-oriented factors;
d) extrapolation method, taking into account the dynamics of the predicted and planned indicators, as well as possible trends in their variation;
e) the method of expert assessments associated with surveys of specialists with significant experience in this field;
(e) Methods of economic and mathematical modeling, involving the development of formalized models, the substitution of numerical values characteristic of future periods makes it possible to calculate other parameters for the same periods.
Forecasting and planning the development of regions is an important form of state regulation of the economic development of the region. The instruments of such regulation include methods of orientation and active influence.
The system of instruments of state regulation of the socio-economic development of the region of an orienting nature includes:
1) the general scheme of development and distribution of productive forces, which is a forecast document of a strategic nature, containing a scientific justification for the development and distribution of productive forces for the future and including an analysis of the goals, objectives, prerequisites, problems, forecasts and assessments of the effectiveness of changes in the regional structure of the national economy;
2) forecast of socio-economic development of the region, which is a foresight of the future state of the economy and social sphere of a particular territory. The forecast of socio-economic development of the region includes a set of private forecasts reflecting the future state of individual aspects of society (demographic situation, dynamics and magnitude of effective demand, supply of production resources, etc.), as well as a comprehensive economic forecast that characterizes the future development of the region’s economy as an integral entity. According to the time horizon, comprehensive forecasts of economic development of the regions are divided into long-term (5-10 years), medium-term (3-5 years) and short-term (1-2 years);
3) the strategic plan of regional development is a management document that contains an interrelated description of various aspects of the development activities of the region. The preparation of such a plan includes:
setting goals for the development of the region; identification of ways to achieve the set goals; analysis of potential opportunities, the implementation of which will allow to achieve success; Identify the most efficient ways to use resources.
The main components of the strategy of socio-economic development should be:
implementation of targeted structural, scientific, technical and investment policies; solving social problems in reforming the economy; stimulation of business activity of the real sector of the economy.
4) indicative planning of regional development is the process of forming a system of indicators characterizing the state and development of the region’s economy, corresponding to the directions of the state socio-economic policy.
The indicative plan is a tool for orienting the business sector in choosing the most effective ways of development. It provides for the development of measures of state influence on social and economic processes in order to achieve the established indicators. The indicators of the indicative plan are not of a prescriptive nature. It contains a limited number of mandatory tasks and is largely targeted. The object of indicative planning in the region is a complex of industries located on its territory, and the purpose of planning is to ensure their effective and proportional development, based on the needs of production and solving social issues. As the most important indicators of socio-economic development, indicators characterizing the dynamics, structure and efficiency of the economy, the state of finance, money circulation, the market of goods and securities, price movements, employment, the standard of living of the population, foreign economic relations, etc. are used.
The system of instruments of active influence of the state on the economic development of the region includes programming of regional development, as well as the development and implementation of the region’s budget.
Programming the development of the region’s economy is the development and implementation of special documents describing the goals, procedure, activities and means of solving the most pressing problems of regional development. Programming reflects the active participation of power structures not only in indirect (indirect) influence on economic processes, but also in the direct management of the course of social reproduction. This process takes place in all developed countries of the world.
The program-targeted approach as a tool for the regional administration to conduct a purposeful policy to solve the problems of the region should be based on a system of programs that are implemented either by state bodies at different levels or by private companies with state support. Targeted programs are a complex of research, development, production, socio-economic, organizational, economic and other measures that ensure the effective solution of problems in the field of state, economic, environmental, social and cultural development of the country. Program-targeted planning is very actively used in almost all countries with developed market economies, but the United States has achieved particular success in this direction, surpassing all its closest competitors in terms of the scale and quality of central planning (see paragraph 3.4).
The most important tool for the active regulation of regional development by the state is the development and implementation of the budget system of the region, which includes a consolidated budget and extra-budgetary funds. The budget of the region is a form of formation and expenditure of funds in order to ensure the function of public authorities in the region. The concentration of financial resources in the budget is necessary for the successful implementation of the financial policy of state bodies (see paragraph 4.2).
The regulatory functions of the regional budgets of the budget systems are as follows:
creation of conditions for improving the level and quality of life of the population of the region; promoting an equitable distribution of income among certain groups of the population living in the region; development of business activity in the region by directing regional investments controlled by the administration to the “growth points” of the regional economic complex through the regional development budget or through direct public investment; equalization of business conditions in the territorial formations of the region through the development of production, social and market infrastructure, etc.
In the Republic of Belarus, as in all other countries of the world, forecasting and planning the socio-economic development of the country and regions is the most important function of the state. The main forecast document that forms the strategy of economic development of our country is the Comprehensive Forecast of economic and social development of the country and regions, which determines the main strategic goals, on the basis of which planning documents are then developed, a mechanism for state regulation of the economy is formed.
At all levels of state administration of the regional economy of Belarus, the following documents are used in the practice of forecasting and planning for different periods of time:
The National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus, which is a system of scientifically based concepts about the criteria and principles of sustainable development of the economy, society and the state of the environment, on the basis of which the directions for the effective use of the social, demographic, production, innovative and natural potentials of the regions for a period of 15 years are determined; The main directions of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus and the regions (for 10 years) is a document that considers a system of scientifically based views on the patterns and really possible ways of socio-economic development of the country and regions, develops scenarios for socio-economic development for the long term, determines the goals and priorities, macroeconomic policy, the most important directions of structural restructuring of the economy and the means of their implementation, development of sectors of the region and administrative-territorial units; Socio-Economic Development Programme
(for 5 years) is based on the previous document and reflects the assessment of the results of socio-economic development for the previous period, the characteristics of the state of the regional economy, the concept of development of the region for the medium term, macroeconomic policy (including fiscal and monetary policy), social issues, environmental aspects, etc. The forecast of socio-economic development of the region (for 1 year) is a short-term document that specifies activities necessary for the implementation of the planned development strategy of the region, as well as reflect the indicators on which the region’s economy will reach in the forecast period. The forecast consists of two parts:
1) analysis of the socio-economic development of the region for the previous period;
2) a forecast block reflecting the specialization of the region in the nationwide division of labor, an assessment of socio-economic development and the main directions of transformations in the region’s economy (development of the real sector of the economy, infrastructure, service sector, culture, healthcare, etc.).
Thanks to the development of long-term, medium-term and current forecasts and plans for regional development, the problems of stabilizing the economy, economic growth, reducing unemployment in the regions, as well as leveling the levels of their socio-economic development are being solved.