The planning method is understood as a specific method, a technical technique by which a planning problem is solved, numerical values of forecasts, programs and plans are calculated. In the theory and practice of planned activities over the past years, a significant set of various methods for developing forecasts and plans has been accumulated.
Scientists estimate that there are over 150 different methods. As the main methods in practice, only
15-20. The development of informatics and computer technology makes it possible to expand the range of forecasting and planning methods used and improve them.
According to the degree of formalization, the methods of economic forecasting (planning) can be divided into intuitive and formalized.
Intuitive methods are based on intuitive and logical thinking. They are used in cases where it is impossible to take into account the influence of many factors due to the significant complexity of the object or the object is too simple and does not require time-consuming calculations. Such methods should be used in other cases in combination with formalized methods.
Among the intuitive methods, the methods of expert assessments have become widespread. They are used to obtain predictive estimates of the development of production, scientific and technological progress, the efficiency of resource use, etc.
Formalized methods include extrapolation methods and methods of economic and mathematical modeling. They are based on mathematical theory.
Among the methods of extrapolation, the method of selection of functions, based on the method of least squares (MNCs), has become widespread. In modern conditions, increasing importance has been attached to modifications of MNCs: the method of exponential smoothing with an adjustable trend and the method of adaptive smoothing. Modeling methods involve the use in the process of forecasting and planning of various kinds of economic and mathematical models, which are a formalized description of the economic process (object) under study in the form of mathematical dependencies and relations. There are the following models: matrix, models of optimal planning, economic and statistical (trend, factor, econometric), simulation models, decision-making models. To implement economic and mathematical models, economic and mathematical methods are used.
In the practice of forecasting and planning, the following methods are also widely used: balance, normative, analytical (economic analysis), programmatic – target (Fig.6.1.).
The balance method is a set of techniques used to link and harmonize interdependent indicators. The purpose of these techniques is to achieve a balance (equilibrium) between indicators.
The balances used at the enterprise level allow us to judge the available production capacities, their dynamics in the forecast period, the degree of use, to plan the production of the enterprise’s products in marketing monitoring; get a clear idea of the resources of the fund of the operating time of equipment and production facilities and its use in production, as well as the fund of working time of personnel, its structure and directions of savings; prepare the planned budget of the enterprise, solve other tasks facing it. The balance sheet system covers all sections of programs and plans, both the balance method and all other planning methods are used in their preparation.
Normative methods are based on the application of scientifically based progressive norms and standards. The norm is understood as the regulated value of the absolute consumption of resources per unit of production or for the performance of a unit of work. A standard is a relative indicator of the consumption of a resource per unit other than output or work. Norms and standards used in planning can be summarized in the following groups:
labor costs (time standards, service standards, manageability standards, etc.) and wages; consumption of raw materials, materials, production stocks; use of production facilities and equipment; economic, including financial (current liquidity ratios, provision of own funds, etc.).
Analytical methods or methods of economic analysis are extremely diverse, but common to them is the decomposition of the causes of the economic phenomenon into individual factors and finding the degree of influence of these factors on the final result.
The program-target method provides for the development of integrated programs, which are a set of production, research and organizational and economic measures linked in terms of resources, executors and deadlines that ensure the achievement of the set goals.
Methods of economic-mathematical modeling or optimal planning make it possible to solve the problems of finding the minimum or maximum values of the objective function. The main provisions of economic and mathematical modeling consist in determining the methodology for selecting and setting the optimality criterion, formalizing the model of the functioning of the control object, constructing constraints, resources and tasks, developing an algorithm for numerical analysis of the model, analyzing the actual development and improving the developed means of forming solutions in production management.