In the system of state regulation of industry, forecasting, planning and programming occupy a central place.
Forecasting the industry allows you to determine the main directions of its development with the allocation of the main aspects of activity: the development of the technical base of production, the organizational and technical level of production, the need for products and the degree of its satisfaction, the need for resources, changes in the structure, pace, volume of production. All of these aspects are closely related to each other and form the structure of the industry forecast.
The most important principle of forecasting the development of the industry is the principle of consistency, which allows us to consider the industry as an integral part of social production, its subsystem. The main factors determining the industry as a subsystem are, on the one hand, the need for the industry’s products, on the other hand, the need of the industry itself for the necessary resources.
Sources of information for forecasting are primary statistical data on the economic and scientific and technical state of the industry, its sub-sectors, economic reports, regulatory and technical documentation, methodological literature, etc.
The main objects of industry forecasting are the needs for industry products and production resources.
Forecasting the needs for the industry’s products is based on two factors: trends in the development of consumer industries; technical and production capabilities of supplier industries.
When forecasting the needs of products, the following are established: the circle of consumers and the structure of consumption of industrial products in the context of aggregated groups and their share in consumption; norms and standards that make it possible to quantify the relationship between suppliers and consumers.
The need for industrial products is determined for production and non-production purposes in three main areas: the need for labor items, tools and consumer goods.
In the production sphere, the main method of forecasting the needs for industrial products is normative: the forecast for each group of consumers is made on the basis of aggregated group consumption standards of the projected type of product per unit of the consumer industry and the projected volumes of its production.
The forecasting of the most promising standards is based on the definition of the factors that form them: NTP, the structure of production both in consumer and producer industries, trends in changes in the standards themselves, etc.
The forecast of non-production needs is based on prospective consumption rates, trends in the structure of consumption, dependencies on the level of income of the population, prices and other factors.
In addition to the normative method, when forecasting the needs for industrial products, other methods are used: modeling methods, extrapolation methods (moving average, exponential smoothing, Markov chains, etc.).
Forecasting the needs for products of the industry involves forecasting the resources required for the production of products: material, labor, fixed assets and capital investments. For these purposes, various methods are used: balance, normative, methods based on the use of resource intensity coefficients (material intensity, capital intensity, labor intensity), economic and mathematical methods (factor models, extrapolation methods, etc.).
In modern conditions, when developing plans-forecasts for the development of industrial production, the balance method and the method of intersectoral balances have become the most widespread, allowing to determine the relationship between the needs for industrial products and the capabilities of the manufacturing industry, the degree of their linkage, to trace intersectoral relations.
On the basis of the calculations carried out, the volumes of production of industrial products as a whole and its most important types are determined.
Of particular importance in the development of forecast plans are material balances – balances of the most important types of raw materials and materials, fuel, electricity, equipment, production facilities. The basis for determining the possible output of industrial products is the balance of production capacity.
The basis of plans-forecasts for the development of industrial production are the principles of proportionality and balance, increasing production efficiency, priority. Therefore, along with the linking of needs and resources, intersectoral proportions are established, priority distribution of resources to priority sectors is ensured, indicators characterizing the use of production assets, material and labor resources (capital return, material intensity and labor productivity) are determined.
The most important tool for solving strategic, large-scale, as well as key tactical problems in the development of the industry is programming.
Today, along with industry-wide programs (the Program for the Development of the Industrial Complex of the Republic of Belarus until 2015, the Program for Energy Saving for 2001-2005), programs are being developed in priority areas for the development of certain industries: “Belavto-Tractor Building”, “Belelektika”, “Belsensor”, “Machine Tools and Tools”, “Television”, “Diagnostics, Medical Equipment and Equipment”, the presidential program “Consumer Electronics” and others.