The concept and main elements of the planning and forecasting methodology

The methodology of planning and forecasting is understood as a system of approaches, principles, indicators, methods and methods for developing and justifying forecasts and planning decisions, as well as the logic of planning and forecasting. The methodology is based on economic theory, which studies the laws and laws of the development of society, the main provisions and trends of reproductive processes, and develops and improves as the economic theory itself develops.

With regard to the economy of the Republic of Belarus, the methodology of planning and forecasting should ensure the achievement of the set goals and the solution of specific tasks in the current economic situation. This is the first thing. Secondly, it should orient the development of the republic’s economy in accordance with the concept of a new quality of economic growth generally accepted in world practice, which provides for the development of the economy in such basic areas as socio-effective, resource-saving, science-intensive, environmentally friendly.

The most important component of the planning and forecasting methodology is methodological principles – initial provisions, fundamental rules for the formation and justification of plans and forecasts. They ensure the purposefulness, integrity, structure and logic of the plans and forecasts being developed.

Methods of planning and forecasting are ways, techniques by which he develops and justifies plans and forecasts.

Indicators of plans and forecasts are a  quantitative expression of planned and forecast decisions.

The methodology is a set of working methods and techniques used to implement specific planned and forecast calculations and various indicators. It is of a private nature, subordinated to the methodology of planning and forecasting and is included in it as an integral part.

The most important element of the methodology of state planning and forecasting is logic. The logic of planning and forecasting is an orderly sequence and validity of actions related to the development of plans and forecasts. The main idea of logic is to determine the starting point from which the entire process of developing plans and forecasts begins and obeys. The main components of logic  include:

formation of a system of planning and forecasting goals; analysis of the initial level, i.e. the state of the predicted and planned object in the past and present, clarification of parameters and assessment of the level of its development; study of the needs of society, their volume and structure in the planning and forecast periods; determination of the available resources of the company, which can be created in the planning or forecast period; coordination of resources and needs of society and development of planned or predictive decisions.

Despite the commonality of methodological foundations, the methodology, principles, methods of planning, forecasting can be said with a certain degree of conditionality. This is due to the role that planning and forecasting play as forms of government regulation. And if planning (directive, indicative, strategic) reflects a specific decision regarding the planned object, then forecasting gives a probabilistic assessment of its state in the future, various ways and means of its development, or serves as the basis for making a planned decision.