Spider web-like  model with delayed demand

The conceptual model of any process of price dynamics includes the interaction of three subsystems, which can be conditionally called “commodity producer”, “consumer” and “market” (Fig.7.17.). The spider-like model (model A), in which demand lags behind supply by one period: D(Pt+1)=S(Pt), also fits into the scheme of Figure 7.17. Rice. 7.17. Conceptual scheme of the […]

Estimating the accuracy of random variable prediction

The easiest way to characterize the accuracy of the forecast is to indicate the extent of fluctuations in the values of a random variable in the sample. The range of oscillations is the difference between the maximum and minimum values, the larger it is, the lower the accuracy of the forecast. But this characteristic has […]