Forecasting and planning of investments occupies a special place in the system of state regulation of investment activities. Investment forecasting is carried out for long-, medium- and short-term periods at the level of the country as a whole, at the level of individual regions and industries, spheres, complexes, enterprises, firms, etc. The main stages of forecasting are:
study of investment needs; determination of possible volumes of investment flows for all sources of financing; rational distribution of investments in the directions of their use with priority allocation to priority areas; evaluation of the effectiveness of the use of investments.
When forecasting investment needs, both formalized methods (extrapolation, correlation-regression models, intersectoral balance, etc.) and methods of expert assessments (questionnaires, the Delphi method, the idea generation method, etc.) are used.
Investment needs are determined at the macro level, as well as at the level of individual industries, spheres, complexes, enterprises, firms, etc. In accordance with the National Program for Attracting Investments to the Economy of the Republic of Belarus, the country’s annual investment need is estimated at $ 15 billion, and to ensure expanded reproduction and revival of the economy – at least $ 50 billion. Investment needs are linked to investment resources, taking into account all sources of financing.
At the macro level, the forecasting of total investment is carried out on the basis of establishing the share of investment in GDP and the projected volume of foreign investment. The calculation is carried out by:
U & GDP* D + II
where Ui is the total investment,
Di – share of investment in GDP;
II is the projected volume of foreign investment.
When determining the share of investments in GDP, the threshold values of the share of investments in GDP are based on threshold values equal to 20% for simple reproduction, and 30-40% for expanded reproduction. When forecasting investments on the basis of aggregated calculations, the reproduction, technological, sectoral and territorial structures of investments in fixed assets are formed, and the volume of investments in the most important investment projects is established.
In the forecast documents, the volume of investments is reflected in value terms and growth rates compared to the previous period. For example, in 2001, the projected volumes of investments in fixed assets in the republic amounted to 3082-3112 billion rubles, or 103.5-194.5% of the volume of 2000, and in 2005 they should increase by 1.6-1.7 times to the level of 2000.